I have decided to use my SmackJabber debut to ask you, humble reader, for some advice. As many of us slide toward fantasy football draft, er, auction day, I'd be interested to hear everyone's thoughts on the strategic implications of various rule variations on an otherwise standard 12-team fantasy auction.
My only fantasy football league, an integration of players and concepts from the wildly successful Scotch & Donuts auction-based fantasy baseball keeper league and the now defunct (at least for all I care) WP's Finest draft-based fantasy football league (my condolences to Lee and Josh), is entering its inaugural season. The league, which shall hereafter be dubbed Starkbierzeit (first non-league member to correctly nail the reference gets... well, I don't have Yankee tickets to give away at the moment, but let's just say we'll come up with something!), employs a roster structure with only 1 starting QB. The remainder of the roster in somewhat standard - 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K and 1 D/ST.
If you buy into the theory that there are 7 Tier 1 QBs (depending on the status of he who shall remain nameless until reporting for camp), but only 4 "elites" - Brees, Rodgers, Manning and Brady - how should one attack the bidding when trying to land the right field general?
How much of my budget should I spend on QB1 when there is no QB2?
-Brian
I think you should bid a LOT on QBs, and that you in particular should devote a significant portion of your bankroll to Brady.
ReplyDeleteLike $55.
I do agree that there are 7 elite and probably an additional 4 to 5 servicable QBs with high upside potential. Although some QBs are more elite than others, I think any of the elites have the potential to produce top 3 numbers, and the spread between the 7 top QBs is pretty slim. So I think the key to bidding on QBs is to bargain hunt. But you should still bid as much as possible to get Brady.
A couple of quick points...
ReplyDelete1) I think you should listen to nothing Linzer says as he is just trying to throw you off your game (My condolences Linzer, for not being able to throw $100 at Kurt Warner anymore.... well... you CAN, but I fear even you are not that foolish)
2) I know you are going to laugh at me, but Matt Schaub has to be put in this list, along with Romo and Rivers.
3) It is all relative. You need to figure out a ratio between points and dollars, then weigh it against the drop offs, or tiers, at each position. Basically, you need to get points somewhere, but if you can get 300 from a $55 QB, and only 200 from a $55 WR (yes, i predict Linzer WILL own a $55+ WR) then for sure it's worth bidding a few extra $'s to secure the QB.
Point is, it is all relative and there is no finite answer. There are many many ways to skin a fantasy auction, er, cat....
Lee, please try to take this discussion seriously. Romo, Rivers and Schaub are not even top 10 QBs. I would take Stafford, Ryan, Garrard or Alex Smith over any of them. Schaub is maybe worth $4.
ReplyDeleteDo yourself a favor and do some research before the auction!
I don't even know if I should really justify your nonsense with a reponse, BUT, over the last 3 years, the top 4 fantasy quarterbacks are Breese, Manning, Romo, and Rivers. Last year Schaub put up more fantasy points that Peyton Manning, in route to putting up the highest passing yard total in the NFL. Granted, he only has one year to show (your nuts if you discount Rivers, and Romo, who have been doing it for a while) but I don't think last year was a fluke. I'll be ECSTATIC to spend $20 on Schaub this Sunday if no one thinks he's worth squat, while the rest of you knuckleheads fight for a $70 Drew Breese.
ReplyDeleteUm, Lee, I think you need to check the batteries in your sarcasm meter.
ReplyDeleteI will be surprised if anyone bids on Drew Breese at all.
ReplyDeleteIf loving Matt Schaub is wrong Lee doesnt wnat to be right!!
ReplyDeleteMatt Schaub, $30. Go ahead, Lee, make my day.
ReplyDeleteSo I realize this is becoming a bit of an incestuous fantasy league echo chamber, but I was honestly hoping for a little more out of you guys in response to my original post.
If every team has to start two QBs, I believe the astute owner will evaluate his needs at the position very differently than in a 1-QB format. What I don't know is whether this pushes up or drives down the price of the elite guys?
It would seem that if you view the top 7-8 guys as comparable, then you can afford to sit tight when the most popular guys get tossed out. But will this view create a price spike near the bottom Tier 1? Can you afford to roll the dice on your 10th or 11th rated QB?
And if you believe that there are only 4 true elites, is it more or less important to grab on in a 1-QB league than in a 2-QB league?
I am really not sure how to answer this. In a 2 QB league, you probably have larger rosters, and thus a larger cap, so you could have room for 2 higher priced QB's. However, I do think that it devalues QB's somewhat to only have one starter, because even if you don't get one of the leagues elite guys, you still will in all likelihood get a very serviceable starter at QB. As where in a 2 QB league, if you sleep on QB some people will already have backups (a 3rd QB), and you end up having to start someone like JaMarcus Russell (...ok, maybe that's overdoing it a little but you get my point). I actually don't think the value of the top 4 guys change, but the value of 5-15 goes up by a decent amount in a 2 QB league.
ReplyDelete