How to Train Your Bracket

Selection Sunday is one of my favorite days of the year. The day begins with the SEC and ACC Conference Title Games, continues with the Selection Show and concludes with printing out your bracket. Best of all, after Selection Sunday, ESPN returns Joe Lunardi to the bridge he lives under for the next 10 months.

Once you have your bracket (and you can find a great free one here; winner gets an iPad 2!), it's time to figure out which teams are going to advance toward the middle of the page. Everybody has their own method. Some pick their favorite team to win it all and then just fill in around them, while others go round by round and examine each matchup before advancing a team. The most creative method I have ever seen is to consider which team’s mascot would win in a fight and advance that team to the next round. The only major flaw with this method is the metaphysical debate that arises from a matchup between the Syracuse Orange and the Indiana State Sycamores.

Now I would never tell anyone to toss the selection method they have always used, but if you would like some advice on filling out your bracket, please continue reading. Here are a couple of my recommendations:

Determine your champion first

It is tempting to go round by round, see which teams end up in the championship game and then pick a winner. The problem is that there's a lot we can learn about who is likely to win the title based on past champions. The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is all about upsets. The excitement of a 13 seed knocking off a 4 seed may be what drives the first weekend, but once you get to the Final Four, upsets are rare and quality tends to win out.

In the last 22 NCAA Tournaments, a 1 seed has won the tournament 15 times. The other seven tourneys were won by three 2 seeds, three 3 seeds and a 4 seed. This means that you can limit your search for a champion to the top 10 or 12 teams in the country. Once you have narrowed the pool down to those 10-12 teams, here are a few other factors to consider:

Talent. Every NCAA Champion since 1979 (with the exception of Maryland in 2003) has had a McDonald’s All-American on its roster. This year’s contenders without a McDonald’s All-American include: Notre Dame, BYU, San Diego State and Purdue.

Defense. The old cliché is that defense wins championships. And in this case, it couldn't be more true. What is meant by defense may seem a bit vague though. Specifically, champions hold their opponents to a low field goal percentage. In the last 13 seasons, the NCAA Champion has had an average defensive field goal percentage of 39.5%. This year’s contenders with a defensive field goal percentage below 40% include Texas (38.4%), Syracuse (39.3%), Louisville (39.5%), San Diego State (39.6%), Kansas (39.7%) and Pittsburgh (39.8%).

Free Throw Shooting. The ability to hold a lead by making free throws down the stretch is a key attribute of a championship team. This was never more evident than in 2008 when Memphis had a 9 point lead with 2:12 remaining, but missed 4 out of 5 foul shots to give Kansas the opportunity to tie the game and then win it in overtime. Memphis only made 61.4% (329th in the country) of their free throws during the season and went 12/19 in the final game. Among this year’s contenders, Texas only makes 64.5% (301st) of its free throws and Syracuse makes 65.9% (274th).

First Weekend Upsets

Here is a dirty little secret that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee doesn’t want you to know: They are not very good at their job. Now, to give them some credit, it is a really difficult job. Regardless, every year, the Selection Committee has a lot of trouble determining where to seed certain categories of teams such as teams from smaller conferences that have strong RPIs. A good example from last year is Old Dominion. They were 27-6 overall and 14-4 in the Colonial Athletic Conference. They were 27th in the RPI, but were given an 11 seed. Historically, 11 seeds only win 32% of the time. However, Notre Dame was only a 2-point favorite over Old Dominion, which would suggest that Old Dominion had around a 45% chance of winning rather than the historical 32%.

The members of the Selection Committee are college athletic directors and conference commissioners with full time jobs who take time out of their already busy schedules to seed the NCAA field. On the other hand, Vegas line makers and professional gamblers spend all of their time analyzing teams. Take a look at the Vegas line of each game before filling out your bracket. Look for games where the spread is much lower than is typical for those two seeds. This will show you which first round “upsets” were much closer than the seeding implied.

No one has a fool-proof method of filling out an NCAA tournament bracket, but looking at a few key pieces of information can give you a leg up on the competition. And if all else fails, remember that a Musketeer is always a huge favorite over an Aztec.